Traffic restrictions and air quality: a counterfactual matrix completion analysis of Milan’s Area C

Urban traffic is seen as one of the major contributors to air pollution in densely populated areas. Many cities have implemented traffic restriction zones to mitigate the high levels of pollutants within urban areas. Milan’s Area C, introduced in January 2012, is a prominent case. While prior studies utilizing classical econometric techniques have produced mixed results, we apply matrix completion, a statistical learning method, to evaluate the causal effect of Area C on air quality. Our analysis reveals a statistically significant reduction in PM10 levels due to Area C restrictions within the treated area.