A Statistical Approach for Modeling the Aging Effects in Li-Ion Energy Storage Systems

This paper presents a novel approach for the technical and economic assessment of Li-ion battery energy storage systems (BESS) in smart grids supported by renewable energy sources. The approach is based on the definition of a statistical battery degradation cost model (SBDCM), able to estimate the expected costs related to BESS aging, according to the statistical properties of its expected cycling patterns. This new approach can improve the assessment of the economical sustainability of BESSs in this kind of applications, helping in this way the planning processes in electricity infrastructures in presence of high penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources. The SBDCM proposed in this paper is a statistical generalization of a battery degradation model presented in the literature. The proposed approach has been validated numerically comparing the results with those of the deterministic model considering for the BESS a stochastic dataset of input signals. In order to test the usefulness of the proposed model in a real world application, the proposed SBDCM has been applied to the evaluation of the economic benefit associated to the development of distributed energy storage system scenarios in the Italian power system, aimed to provide ancillary services for supporting electricity market.