In recent papers the authors introduce, study and apply a variant of the Eggenberger–Pólya urn, called the “rescaled” Pólya urn, which, for a suitable choice of the model parameters, exhibits a reinforcement mechanism mainly based on the last observations, a random persistent fluctuation of the predictive mean and the almost sure convergence of the empirical mean to a deterministic limit. In this work, motivated by some empirical evidence, we show that the multidimensional Wright–Fisher diffusion with mutation can be obtained as a suitable limit of the predictive means associated to a family of rescaled Pólya urns.

The Rescaled Pólya Urn and the Wright–Fisher Process with Mutation

Crimaldi Irene
2021

Abstract

In recent papers the authors introduce, study and apply a variant of the Eggenberger–Pólya urn, called the “rescaled” Pólya urn, which, for a suitable choice of the model parameters, exhibits a reinforcement mechanism mainly based on the last observations, a random persistent fluctuation of the predictive mean and the almost sure convergence of the empirical mean to a deterministic limit. In this work, motivated by some empirical evidence, we show that the multidimensional Wright–Fisher diffusion with mutation can be obtained as a suitable limit of the predictive means associated to a family of rescaled Pólya urns.
Pólya urn; predictive mean; urn model; Wright–Fisher diffusion
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11771/19477
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