We show that bank shocks to firms propagate along the production network with stronger upstream than downstream effects. Our identification relies on (i) administrative datasets from Spain covering supplier-customer transactions and bank loans, (ii) bank credit supply shocks from the global financial crisis, and (iii) a general equilibrium model of a production network with financial frictions, estimated structurally. We find network propagation amplifies the impact of bank shocks on GDP growth by nearly 50 percent. Moreover, bank shocks to firms' distant suppliers and customers contribute similarly to this aggregate effect as bank shocks to firms' direct customers and suppliers.

Production and financial networks in interplay / Huremovic, K.; Jimenez, G.; Moral-Benito, E.; Peydro, J. -L.; Vega-Redondo, F.. - In: THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW. - ISSN 1944-7981. - 116:5(2026), pp. 1611-1647. [10.1257/aer.20201088]

Production and financial networks in interplay

Huremovic K.;
2026

Abstract

We show that bank shocks to firms propagate along the production network with stronger upstream than downstream effects. Our identification relies on (i) administrative datasets from Spain covering supplier-customer transactions and bank loans, (ii) bank credit supply shocks from the global financial crisis, and (iii) a general equilibrium model of a production network with financial frictions, estimated structurally. We find network propagation amplifies the impact of bank shocks on GDP growth by nearly 50 percent. Moreover, bank shocks to firms' distant suppliers and customers contribute similarly to this aggregate effect as bank shocks to firms' direct customers and suppliers.
2026
D22 Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis, D85 Network Formation and Analysis: Theory, E23 Macroeconomics: Production, G01 Financial Crises, G21 Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages, G32 Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill, L14 Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation; Networks
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11771/41418
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